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FC Famalicao vs Arouca: Primeira Liga, Nov 6, 2026

Primeira Liga
HomeFC Famalicao6313OVR
Kick-off 2:45 PM CT
AwayArouca7615OVR

Friday, November 6, 2026 · 2:45 PM CT · Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão, Portugal

Team comparison

Ratings

6313OVRHome

FC Famalicao

ATT
6613
DEF
6413
FRM
5812
ELO
6413
  • 6613Attack6413
  • 6413Defence8517
  • 5812Form9018
  • 6413Elo strength6413
  • 6313Overall7615
ATTDEFFRMELO
FC Famalicao Arouca
7615OVRAway

Arouca

ATT
6413
DEF
8517
FRM
9018
ELO
6413

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

FC Famalicao (11th, 10 pts from 10) host Arouca (5th, 20 pts from 10) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. FC Famalicao have scored 14 and conceded 14 in 10 Primeira Liga games (1.4 and 1.4 per game). Arouca have scored 13 and conceded 7 in 10 Primeira Liga games (1.3 and 0.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): FC Famalicao WLLWL, Arouca DWWWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, FC Famalicao won 2, Arouca won 1 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 0.8–1.4. Arouca are clear favorites: FC Famalicao 23%, draw 27%, Arouca 50%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 15% chance. Elo ratings (FC Famalicao 1539, Arouca 1532) give FC Famalicao an expected score of 60%, which disagrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

FC Famalicao winDrawArouca win

Expected goals (model): FC Famalicao 0.84 · Arouca 1.41 · most likely score 0–1 (15%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.29 / away 1.39 goals per game from 90 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: FC Famalicao expected score 60%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

FC FamalicaoArouca
11thTable position5th
10 (10)Points (played)20 (10)
2-4-4W-D-L6-2-2
1.40Goals for / game*1.30
1.40Goals against / game*0.70
WLLWLForm, last 5 (all comps)DWWWW
1539Elo rating (pre-match)1532
1.04 / 1.04Attack / defence index0.98 / 0.63

Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

FC Famalicao 2 wins · 2 draws · Arouca 1 win

  • FC Famalicao 1–0 Arouca
  • Arouca 1–1 FC Famalicao
  • Arouca 1–2 FC Famalicao
  • FC Famalicao 0–0 Arouca
  • Arouca 3–2 FC Famalicao