SC Paderborn 07
- ATT
- 428
- DEF
- 7816
- FRM
- 5311
- ELO
- 5912
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 8:30 AM CT · Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn, Germany
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Paderborn (14th, 9 pts from 8) host Frankfurt (8th, 11 pts from 8) in the Bundesliga table as it stands. Paderborn have scored 6 and conceded 9 in 8 Bundesliga games (0.8 and 1.1 per game). Frankfurt have scored 13 and conceded 18 in 8 Bundesliga games (1.6 and 2.2 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Paderborn LDWLD, Frankfurt LWLWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Paderborn won 3, Frankfurt won 2 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.5–1.0. Paderborn are clear favorites: Paderborn 50%, draw 26%, Frankfurt 24%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Paderborn 1495, Frankfurt 1481) give Paderborn an expected score of 61%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Paderborn 1.50 · Frankfurt 0.96 · most likely score 1–0 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.12 / away 1.38 goals per game from 72 Bundesliga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Paderborn expected score 61%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Paderborn | Frankfurt | |
|---|---|---|
| 14th | Table position | 8th |
| 9 (8) | Points (played) | 11 (8) |
| 2-3-3 | W-D-L | 3-2-3 |
| 0.75 | Goals for / game* | 1.62 |
| 1.12 | Goals against / game* | 2.25 |
| LDWLD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LWLWW |
| 1495 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1481 |
| 0.58 / 0.74 | Attack / defence index | 0.95 / 1.21 |
Table: current Bundesliga standings. *Bundesliga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Paderborn 3 wins · 0 draws · Frankfurt 2 wins