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Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano: La Liga, Nov 8, 2026

La Liga
HomeReal Sociedad6714OVR
Kick-off 9:15 AM CT
AwayRayo Vallecano6213OVR

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 9:15 AM CT · Reale Arena, San Sebastian, Spain

Team comparison

Ratings

6714OVRHome

Real Sociedad

ATT
7215
DEF
5812
FRM
7615
ELO
6313
  • 7215Attack6513
  • 5812Defence5511
  • 7615Form6714
  • 6313Elo strength6413
  • 6714Overall6213
ATTDEFFRMELO
Real Sociedad Rayo
6213OVRAway

Rayo Vallecano

ATT
6513
DEF
5511
FRM
6714
ELO
6413

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Real Sociedad (5th, 19 pts from 11) host Rayo (12th, 12 pts from 10) in the La Liga table as it stands. Real Sociedad have scored 20 and conceded 20 in 11 La Liga games (1.8 and 1.8 per game). Rayo have scored 15 and conceded 20 in 10 La Liga games (1.5 and 2.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Real Sociedad DWWWL, Rayo DDLWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Real Sociedad won 1, Rayo won 2 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 2.5–1.5. Real Sociedad are clear favorites: Real Sociedad 59%, draw 19%, Rayo 22%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (Real Sociedad 1531, Rayo 1538) give Real Sociedad an expected score of 58%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Real Sociedad winDrawRayo win

Expected goals (model): Real Sociedad 2.49 · Rayo 1.51 · most likely score 2–1 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.71 / away 1.30 goals per game from 109 La Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Real Sociedad expected score 58%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

Real SociedadRayo
5thTable position12th
19 (11)Points (played)12 (10)
6-1-4W-D-L3-3-4
1.82Goals for / game*1.50
1.82Goals against / game*2.00
DWWWLForm, last 5 (all comps)DDLWW
1531Elo rating (pre-match)1538
1.16 / 1.16Attack / defence index1.00 / 1.25

Table: current La Liga standings. *La Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Real Sociedad 1 win · 2 draws · Rayo 2 wins

  • Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Sociedad
  • Real Sociedad 0–1 Rayo Vallecano
  • Rayo Vallecano 2–2 Real Sociedad
  • Real Sociedad 3–1 Rayo Vallecano
  • Real Sociedad 1–2 Rayo Vallecano