The Coefficient6814OVRHome
Napoli
- ATT
- 6714
- DEF
- 7215
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 7114
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Napoli vs Lazio: Serie A, Nov 8, 2026
Serie AHomeNapoli6814OVR
Kick-off 5:30 AM CT
AwayLazio8417OVR
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 5:30 AM CT · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli, Italy
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6714Attack7916
- 7215Defence8617
- 6213Form9920
- 7114Elo strength7415
- 6814Overall8417
8417OVRAway
Lazio
- ATT
- 7916
- DEF
- 8617
- FRM
- 9920
- ELO
- 7415
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Confirmed lineups
Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Napoli (8th, 14 pts from 10) host Lazio (1st, 28 pts from 10) in the Serie A table as it stands. Napoli have scored 17 and conceded 13 in 10 Serie A games (1.7 and 1.3 per game). Lazio have scored 24 and conceded 8 in 10 Serie A games (2.4 and 0.8 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Napoli LWDWL, Lazio WWWWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Napoli won 1, Lazio won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.1–1.9. Lazio are clear favorites: Napoli 21%, draw 23%, Lazio 56%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 11% chance. Elo ratings (Napoli 1598, Lazio 1628) give Napoli an expected score of 54%, which disagrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Napoli 1.05 · Lazio 1.87 · most likely score 1–1 (11%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.62 / away 1.56 goals per game from 100 Serie A games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Napoli expected score 54%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Napoli | Lazio | |
|---|---|---|
| 8th | Table position | 1st |
| 14 (10) | Points (played) | 28 (10) |
| 4-2-4 | W-D-L | 9-1-0 |
| 1.70 | Goals for / game* | 2.40 |
| 1.30 | Goals against / game* | 0.80 |
| LWDWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWWWW |
| 1598 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1628 |
| 1.05 / 0.86 | Attack / defence index | 1.39 / 0.62 |
Table: current Serie A standings. *Serie A games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Napoli 1 win · 1 draw · Lazio 3 wins
- Napoli 0–2 Lazio
- Lazio 0–2 Napoli
- Lazio 2–2 Napoli
- Napoli 0–1 Lazio
- Lazio 3–1 Napoli