The Coefficient5912OVRHome
Manchester United
- ATT
- 5912
- DEF
- 5812
- FRM
- 4810
- ELO
- 7014
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Manchester United vs Aston Villa: Premier League, Nov 8, 2026
Premier LeagueHomeManchester United5912OVR
Kick-off 10:30 AM CT
AwayAston Villa6513OVR
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 10:30 AM CT · Old Trafford, Manchester, England
Team comparison
Ratings
- 5912Attack5912
- 5812Defence6313
- 4810Form6213
- 7014Elo strength8016
- 5912Overall6513
6513OVRAway
Aston Villa
- ATT
- 5912
- DEF
- 6313
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 8016
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Confirmed lineups
Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Man Utd (17th, 7 pts from 9) host Aston Villa (10th, 12 pts from 9) in the Premier League table as it stands. Man Utd have scored 10 and conceded 15 in 9 Premier League games (1.1 and 1.7 per game). Aston Villa have scored 10 and conceded 13 in 9 Premier League games (1.1 and 1.4 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Man Utd DLLLW, Aston Villa WWLDL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Man Utd won 3, Aston Villa won 1 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.4–1.2. This looks evenly matched: Man Utd 40%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 33%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Man Utd 1587, Aston Villa 1677) give Man Utd an expected score of 46%, which disagrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Man Utd 1.37 · Aston Villa 1.22 · most likely score 1–1 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.20 goals per game from 90 Premier League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Man Utd expected score 46%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Man Utd | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 17th | Table position | 10th |
| 7 (9) | Points (played) | 12 (9) |
| 1-4-4 | W-D-L | 3-3-3 |
| 1.11 | Goals for / game* | 1.11 |
| 1.67 | Goals against / game* | 1.44 |
| DLLLW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWLDL |
| 1587 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1677 |
| 0.87 / 1.18 | Attack / defence index | 0.87 / 1.05 |
Table: current Premier League standings. *Premier League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Man Utd 3 wins · 1 draw · Aston Villa 1 win
- Manchester United 3–1 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester United
- Manchester United 2–0 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 0–0 Manchester United
- Aston Villa 1–2 Manchester United