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Genoa vs AC Milan: Serie A, Nov 8, 2026

Serie A
HomeGenoa6413OVR
Kick-off 8:00 AM CT
AwayAC Milan7315OVR

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 8:00 AM CT · Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genova, Italy

Team comparison

Ratings

6413OVRHome

Genoa

ATT
5010
DEF
6914
FRM
8517
ELO
5712
  • 5010Attack7515
  • 6914Defence7415
  • 8517Form7114
  • 5712Elo strength7215
  • 6413Overall7315
ATTDEFFRMELO
Genoa Milan
7315OVRAway

AC Milan

ATT
7515
DEF
7415
FRM
7114
ELO
7215

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Genoa (11th, 13 pts from 10) host Milan (5th, 21 pts from 10) in the Serie A table as it stands. Genoa have scored 10 and conceded 14 in 10 Serie A games (1.0 and 1.4 per game). Milan have scored 21 and conceded 12 in 10 Serie A games (2.1 and 1.2 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Genoa WLWWW, Milan WLWLW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Genoa won 0, Milan won 2 and 3 were drawn. The goals model expects about 0.9–1.8. Milan are clear favorites: Genoa 20%, draw 23%, Milan 57%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 12% chance. Elo ratings (Genoa 1474, Milan 1612) give Genoa an expected score of 39%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Genoa winDrawMilan win

Expected goals (model): Genoa 0.94 · Milan 1.77 · most likely score 0–1 (12%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.62 / away 1.56 goals per game from 100 Serie A games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Genoa expected score 39%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

GenoaMilan
11thTable position5th
13 (10)Points (played)21 (10)
4-1-5W-D-L6-3-1
1.00Goals for / game*2.10
1.40Goals against / game*1.20
WLWWWForm, last 5 (all comps)WLWLW
1474Elo rating (pre-match)1612
0.71 / 0.91Attack / defence index1.25 / 0.81

Table: current Serie A standings. *Serie A games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Genoa 0 wins · 3 draws · Milan 2 wins

  • Genoa 1–2 AC Milan
  • AC Milan 1–1 Genoa
  • Genoa 1–2 AC Milan
  • AC Milan 0–0 Genoa
  • AC Milan 3–3 Genoa