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SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin: Bundesliga, Nov 8, 2026

Bundesliga
HomeSC Freiburg7014OVR
Kick-off 10:30 AM CT
Away1. FC Union Berlin5211OVR

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 10:30 AM CT · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany

Team comparison

Ratings

7014OVRHome

SC Freiburg

ATT
7315
DEF
7515
FRM
5812
ELO
6914
  • 7315Attack459
  • 7515Defence5511
  • 5812Form5812
  • 6914Elo strength5311
  • 7014Overall5211
ATTDEFFRMELO
Freiburg Union Berlin
5211OVRAway

1. FC Union Berlin

ATT
459
DEF
5511
FRM
5812
ELO
5311

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Freiburg (3rd, 16 pts from 8) host Union Berlin (16th, 7 pts from 8) in the Bundesliga table as it stands. Freiburg have scored 18 and conceded 10 in 8 Bundesliga games (2.2 and 1.2 per game). Union Berlin have scored 7 and conceded 19 in 8 Bundesliga games (0.9 and 2.4 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Freiburg LLLWW, Union Berlin WDDLD. In the last 5 meetings on record, Freiburg won 0, Union Berlin won 3 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 3.2–0.7. Freiburg are clear favorites: Freiburg 86%, draw 10%, Union Berlin 5%. The single most likely score is 3–0, but even that only has a 11% chance. Elo ratings (Freiburg 1580, Union Berlin 1441) give Freiburg an expected score of 76%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Freiburg winDrawUnion Berlin win

Expected goals (model): Freiburg 3.23 · Union Berlin 0.69 · most likely score 3–0 (11%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.12 / away 1.38 goals per game from 72 Bundesliga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Freiburg expected score 76%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

FreiburgUnion Berlin
3rdTable position16th
16 (8)Points (played)7 (8)
5-1-2W-D-L1-4-3
2.25Goals for / game*0.88
1.25Goals against / game*2.38
LLLWWForm, last 5 (all comps)WDDLD
1580Elo rating (pre-match)1441
1.21 / 0.79Attack / defence index0.64 / 1.26

Table: current Bundesliga standings. *Bundesliga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Freiburg 0 wins · 2 draws · Union Berlin 3 wins

  • SC Freiburg 0–1 1. FC Union Berlin
  • 1. FC Union Berlin 0–0 SC Freiburg
  • SC Freiburg 1–2 1. FC Union Berlin
  • 1. FC Union Berlin 0–0 SC Freiburg
  • 1. FC Union Berlin 2–1 SC Freiburg