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Estrela vs Benfica: Primeira Liga, Nov 8, 2026

Primeira Liga
HomeEstrela5511OVR
Kick-off 2:30 PM CT
AwayBenfica8918OVR

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 2:30 PM CT · Estådio José Gomes, Amadora, Portugal

Team comparison

Ratings

5511OVRHome

Estrela

ATT
6914
DEF
5311
FRM
449
ELO
479
  • 6914Attack9018
  • 5311Defence8116
  • 449Form9920
  • 479Elo strength8918
  • 5511Overall8918
ATTDEFFRMELO
Estrela Benfica
8918OVRAway

Benfica

ATT
9018
DEF
8116
FRM
9920
ELO
8918

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games Ă· 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) Ă· 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating Ă· 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Estrela (12th, 10 pts from 10) host Benfica (2nd, 25 pts from 10) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Estrela have scored 15 and conceded 19 in 10 Primeira Liga games (1.5 and 1.9 per game). Benfica have scored 27 and conceded 8 in 10 Primeira Liga games (2.7 and 0.8 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Estrela LLWLL, Benfica WWWWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Estrela won 0, Benfica won 5 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.0–3.3. Benfica are clear favorites: Estrela 7%, draw 11%, Benfica 81%. The single most likely score is 0–3, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (Estrela 1386, Benfica 1761) give Estrela an expected score of 14%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Estrela winDrawBenfica win

Expected goals (model): Estrela 0.97 · Benfica 3.27 · most likely score 0–3 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.29 / away 1.39 goals per game from 90 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Estrela expected score 14%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

EstrelaBenfica
12thTable position2nd
10 (10)Points (played)25 (10)
2-4-4W-D-L8-1-1
1.50Goals for / game*2.70
1.90Goals against / game*0.80
LLWLLForm, last 5 (all comps)WWWWW
1386Elo rating (pre-match)1761
1.09 / 1.32Attack / defence index1.78 / 0.69

Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Estrela 0 wins · 0 draws · Benfica 5 wins

  • Benfica 4–0 Estrela
  • Estrela 0–1 Benfica
  • Estrela 2–3 Benfica
  • Benfica 7–0 Estrela
  • Benfica 1–0 Estrela