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FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen: Bundesliga, Nov 8, 2026

Bundesliga
HomeFC Cologne6012OVR
Kick-off 8:30 AM CT
AwayBayer Leverkusen6914OVR

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 8:30 AM CT · RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne, Germany

Team comparison

Ratings

6012OVRHome

FC Cologne

ATT
5211
DEF
7014
FRM
6714
ELO
5211
  • 5211Attack7315
  • 7014Defence6112
  • 6714Form7114
  • 5211Elo strength7415
  • 6012Overall6914
ATTDEFFRMELO
Cologne Leverkusen
6914OVRAway

Bayer Leverkusen

ATT
7315
DEF
6112
FRM
7114
ELO
7415

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Cologne (13th, 9 pts from 8) host Leverkusen (6th, 13 pts from 8) in the Bundesliga table as it stands. Cologne have scored 9 and conceded 12 in 8 Bundesliga games (1.1 and 1.5 per game). Leverkusen have scored 18 and conceded 16 in 8 Bundesliga games (2.2 and 2.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Cologne WLDWD, Leverkusen WWLWL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Cologne won 0, Leverkusen won 5 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.7–1.5. Cologne are slight favorites: Cologne 44%, draw 23%, Leverkusen 33%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 10% chance. Elo ratings (Cologne 1426, Leverkusen 1626) give Cologne an expected score of 31%, which disagrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Cologne winDrawLeverkusen win

Expected goals (model): Cologne 1.74 · Leverkusen 1.49 · most likely score 1–1 (10%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.12 / away 1.38 goals per game from 72 Bundesliga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Cologne expected score 31%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

CologneLeverkusen
13thTable position6th
9 (8)Points (played)13 (8)
2-3-3W-D-L4-1-3
1.12Goals for / game*2.25
1.50Goals against / game*2.00
WLDWDForm, last 5 (all comps)WWLWL
1426Elo rating (pre-match)1626
0.74 / 0.90Attack / defence index1.21 / 1.10

Table: current Bundesliga standings. *Bundesliga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Cologne 0 wins · 0 draws · Leverkusen 5 wins

  • FC Cologne 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen
  • Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 FC Cologne
  • Bayer Leverkusen 3–2 FC Cologne
  • FC Cologne 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen
  • Bayer Leverkusen 3–0 FC Cologne