Crystal Palace
- ATT
- 5611
- DEF
- 469
- FRM
- 4810
- ELO
- 6213
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 8:00 AM CT · Selhurst Park, London, England
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
C Palace (18th, 7 pts from 9) host Liverpool (5th, 15 pts from 9) in the Premier League table as it stands. C Palace have scored 9 and conceded 21 in 9 Premier League games (1.0 and 2.3 per game). Liverpool have scored 11 and conceded 9 in 9 Premier League games (1.2 and 1.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): C Palace LDLWL, Liverpool WWWWL. In the last 5 meetings on record, C Palace won 2, Liverpool won 1 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.0–1.7. Liverpool are clear favorites: C Palace 21%, draw 24%, Liverpool 55%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 12% chance. Elo ratings (C Palace 1516, Liverpool 1648) give C Palace an expected score of 40%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): C Palace 0.97 · Liverpool 1.72 · most likely score 0–1 (12%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.50 / away 1.20 goals per game from 90 Premier League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: C Palace expected score 40%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| C Palace | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| 18th | Table position | 5th |
| 7 (9) | Points (played) | 15 (9) |
| 2-1-6 | W-D-L | 4-3-2 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game* | 1.22 |
| 2.33 | Goals against / game* | 1.00 |
| LDLWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWWWL |
| 1516 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1648 |
| 0.81 / 1.55 | Attack / defence index | 0.93 / 0.81 |
Table: current Premier League standings. *Premier League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
C Palace 2 wins · 2 draws · Liverpool 1 win