The Coefficient
EN – Language: English
← Match Center

AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen: Eredivisie, Nov 8, 2026

Eredivisie
HomeAZ Alkmaar6914OVR
Kick-off 9:45 AM CT
AwayFC Groningen6112OVR

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 9:45 AM CT · AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar, Netherlands

Team comparison

Ratings

6914OVRHome

AZ Alkmaar

ATT
6313
DEF
8016
FRM
6213
ELO
6914
  • 6313Attack7215
  • 8016Defence6012
  • 6213Form4810
  • 6914Elo strength6112
  • 6914Overall6112
ATTDEFFRMELO
AZ Alkmaar FC Groningen
6112OVRAway

FC Groningen

ATT
7215
DEF
6012
FRM
4810
ELO
6112

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

AZ Alkmaar (5th, 20 pts from 11) host FC Groningen (8th, 15 pts from 11) in the Eredivisie table as it stands. AZ Alkmaar have scored 20 and conceded 13 in 11 Eredivisie games (1.8 and 1.2 per game). FC Groningen have scored 26 and conceded 24 in 11 Eredivisie games (2.4 and 2.2 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): AZ Alkmaar WDWLL, FC Groningen WLDLL. In the last 5 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar won 3, FC Groningen won 1 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.9–1.7. AZ Alkmaar are slight favorites: AZ Alkmaar 44%, draw 22%, FC Groningen 34%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (AZ Alkmaar 1583, FC Groningen 1508) give AZ Alkmaar an expected score of 69%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

AZ Alkmaar winDrawFC Groningen win

Expected goals (model): AZ Alkmaar 1.94 · FC Groningen 1.67 · most likely score 1–1 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.81 / away 2.01 goals per game from 99 Eredivisie games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: AZ Alkmaar expected score 69%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

AZ AlkmaarFC Groningen
5thTable position8th
20 (11)Points (played)15 (11)
6-2-3W-D-L4-3-4
1.82Goals for / game*2.36
1.18Goals against / game*2.18
WDWLLForm, last 5 (all comps)WLDLL
1583Elo rating (pre-match)1508
0.96 / 0.70Attack / defence index1.19 / 1.11

Table: current Eredivisie standings. *Eredivisie games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

AZ Alkmaar 3 wins · 1 draw · FC Groningen 1 win

  • FC Groningen 3–0 AZ Alkmaar
  • AZ Alkmaar 4–1 FC Groningen
  • AZ Alkmaar 3–0 FC Groningen
  • AZ Alkmaar 3–1 FC Groningen
  • FC Groningen 0–0 AZ Alkmaar