Alanyaspor
- ATT
- 4910
- DEF
- 6313
- FRM
- 4810
- ELO
- 5611
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 9:30 AM CT · Kirbiyik Holding Stadyumu, Antalya, Türkiye
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Alanyaspor (12th, 12 pts from 10) host Trabzonspor (3rd, 22 pts from 10) in the Süper Lig table as it stands. Alanyaspor have scored 9 and conceded 16 in 10 Süper Lig games (0.9 and 1.6 per game). Trabzonspor have scored 24 and conceded 8 in 10 Süper Lig games (2.4 and 0.8 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Alanyaspor WDLLL, Trabzonspor WWWWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Alanyaspor won 2, Trabzonspor won 1 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 0.8–1.9. Trabzonspor are clear favorites: Alanyaspor 14%, draw 21%, Trabzonspor 65%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Alanyaspor 1460, Trabzonspor 1682) give Alanyaspor an expected score of 28%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Alanyaspor 0.77 · Trabzonspor 1.95 · most likely score 0–1 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.73 / away 1.27 goals per game from 90 Süper Lig games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Alanyaspor expected score 28%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Alanyaspor | Trabzonspor | |
|---|---|---|
| 12th | Table position | 3rd |
| 12 (10) | Points (played) | 22 (10) |
| 3-3-4 | W-D-L | 7-1-2 |
| 0.90 | Goals for / game* | 2.40 |
| 1.60 | Goals against / game* | 0.80 |
| WDLLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWWWW |
| 1460 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1682 |
| 0.69 / 1.05 | Attack / defence index | 1.46 / 0.64 |
Table: current Süper Lig standings. *Süper Lig games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Alanyaspor 2 wins · 2 draws · Trabzonspor 1 win