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Valencia vs Real Madrid: La Liga, Nov 7, 2026

La Liga
HomeValencia5411OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayReal Madrid8818OVR

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Mestalla Stadium, Manises, Spain

Team comparison

Ratings

5411OVRHome

Valencia

ATT
428
DEF
6413
FRM
5311
ELO
5912
  • 428Attack8417
  • 6413Defence8116
  • 5311Form9920
  • 5912Elo strength9118
  • 5411Overall8818
ATTDEFFRMELO
Valencia Real Madrid
8818OVRAway

Real Madrid

ATT
8417
DEF
8116
FRM
9920
ELO
9118

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Valencia (19th, 9 pts from 11) host Real Madrid (3rd, 27 pts from 11) in the La Liga table as it stands. Valencia have scored 8 and conceded 17 in 11 La Liga games (0.7 and 1.5 per game). Real Madrid have scored 28 and conceded 10 in 11 La Liga games (2.5 and 0.9 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Valencia LDDLW, Real Madrid WWWWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Valencia won 1, Real Madrid won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 0.7–2.1. Real Madrid are clear favorites: Valencia 12%, draw 19%, Real Madrid 69%. The single most likely score is 0–2, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Valencia 1492, Real Madrid 1783) give Valencia an expected score of 21%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Valencia winDrawReal Madrid win

Expected goals (model): Valencia 0.70 · Real Madrid 2.05 · most likely score 0–2 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.71 / away 1.30 goals per game from 109 La Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Valencia expected score 21%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

ValenciaReal Madrid
19thTable position3rd
9 (11)Points (played)27 (11)
2-3-6W-D-L9-0-2
0.73Goals for / game*2.55
1.55Goals against / game*0.91
LDDLWForm, last 5 (all comps)WWWWW
1492Elo rating (pre-match)1783
0.59 / 1.02Attack / defence index1.54 / 0.69

Table: current La Liga standings. *La Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Valencia 1 win · 1 draw · Real Madrid 3 wins

  • Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid
  • Real Madrid 4–0 Valencia
  • Real Madrid 1–2 Valencia
  • Valencia 1–2 Real Madrid
  • Valencia 2–2 Real Madrid