The Coefficient5411OVRHome
Parma
- ATT
- 449
- DEF
- 6714
- FRM
- 4810
- ELO
- 5311
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Parma vs Bologna: Serie A, Nov 7, 2026
Serie AHomeParma5411OVR
Kick-off 11:00 AM CT
AwayBologna7014OVR
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 11:00 AM CT · Ennio Tardini, Parma, Italy
Team comparison
Ratings
- 449Attack6112
- 6714Defence7215
- 4810Form8517
- 5311Elo strength6613
- 5411Overall7014
7014OVRAway
Bologna
- ATT
- 6112
- DEF
- 7215
- FRM
- 8517
- ELO
- 6613
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Confirmed lineups
Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Parma (15th, 8 pts from 10) host Bologna (9th, 14 pts from 10) in the Serie A table as it stands. Parma have scored 8 and conceded 15 in 10 Serie A games (0.8 and 1.5 per game). Bologna have scored 14 and conceded 13 in 10 Serie A games (1.4 and 1.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Parma LLLDW, Bologna WLWWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Parma won 2, Bologna won 2 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 0.9–1.4. Bologna are clear favorites: Parma 24%, draw 28%, Bologna 48%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 15% chance. Elo ratings (Parma 1441, Bologna 1553) give Parma an expected score of 43%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Parma 0.86 · Bologna 1.35 · most likely score 0–1 (15%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.62 / away 1.56 goals per game from 100 Serie A games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Parma expected score 43%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Parma | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 15th | Table position | 9th |
| 8 (10) | Points (played) | 14 (10) |
| 2-2-6 | W-D-L | 4-2-4 |
| 0.80 | Goals for / game* | 1.40 |
| 1.50 | Goals against / game* | 1.30 |
| LLLDW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLWWW |
| 1441 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1553 |
| 0.62 / 0.96 | Attack / defence index | 0.91 / 0.86 |
Table: current Serie A standings. *Serie A games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Parma 2 wins · 1 draw · Bologna 2 wins
- Bologna 0–1 Parma
- Bologna 2–1 Parma
- Parma 1–3 Bologna
- Parma 2–0 Bologna
- Bologna 0–0 Parma