The Coefficient6213OVRHome
Alverca
- ATT
- 6413
- DEF
- 6413
- FRM
- 5812
- ELO
- 5812
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Alverca vs Casa Pia: Primeira Liga, Nov 7, 2026
Primeira LigaHomeAlverca6213OVR
Kick-off 12:00 PM CT
AwayCasa Pia5110OVR
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo, Portugal
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6413Attack377
- 6413Defence5311
- 5812Form7114
- 5812Elo strength479
- 6213Overall5110
5110OVRAway
Casa Pia
- ATT
- 377
- DEF
- 5311
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 479
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Confirmed lineups
Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Alverca (10th, 11 pts from 10) host Casa Pia (17th, 7 pts from 10) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Alverca have scored 13 and conceded 14 in 10 Primeira Liga games (1.3 and 1.4 per game). Casa Pia have scored 5 and conceded 19 in 10 Primeira Liga games (0.5 and 1.9 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Alverca WWLLL, Casa Pia WLWWL. In the last 2 meetings on record, Alverca won 2, Casa Pia won 0 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.7–0.7. Alverca are clear favorites: Alverca 59%, draw 24%, Casa Pia 16%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 15% chance. Elo ratings (Alverca 1478, Casa Pia 1383) give Alverca an expected score of 71%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Alverca 1.67 · Casa Pia 0.74 · most likely score 1–0 (15%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.29 / away 1.39 goals per game from 90 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Alverca expected score 71%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Alverca | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| 10th | Table position | 17th |
| 11 (10) | Points (played) | 7 (10) |
| 3-2-5 | W-D-L | 2-1-7 |
| 1.30 | Goals for / game* | 0.50 |
| 1.40 | Goals against / game* | 1.90 |
| WWLLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLWWL |
| 1478 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1383 |
| 0.98 / 1.04 | Attack / defence index | 0.52 / 1.32 |
Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Alverca 2 wins · 0 draws · Casa Pia 0 wins
- Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia
- Casa Pia 0–2 Alverca