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Toulouse vs Strasbourg: Ligue 1, Nov 6, 2026

Ligue 1
HomeToulouse6112OVR
Kick-off 1:45 PM CT
AwayStrasbourg6012OVR

Friday, November 6, 2026 · 1:45 PM CT · Stadium Municipal de Toulouse, Toulouse, France

Team comparison

Ratings

6112OVRHome

Toulouse

ATT
6112
DEF
6714
FRM
5311
ELO
6012
  • 6112Attack7215
  • 6714Defence5411
  • 5311Form449
  • 6012Elo strength6613
  • 6112Overall6012
ATTDEFFRMELO
Toulouse Strasbourg
6012OVRAway

Strasbourg

ATT
7215
DEF
5411
FRM
449
ELO
6613

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Toulouse (12th, 10 pts from 9) host Strasbourg (13th, 10 pts from 9) in the Ligue 1 table as it stands. Toulouse have scored 12 and conceded 13 in 9 Ligue 1 games (1.3 and 1.4 per game). Strasbourg have scored 17 and conceded 19 in 9 Ligue 1 games (1.9 and 2.1 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Toulouse LDWDL, Strasbourg LLLLW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Toulouse won 2, Strasbourg won 2 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 2.0–1.5. Toulouse are slight favorites: Toulouse 49%, draw 22%, Strasbourg 29%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (Toulouse 1503, Strasbourg 1556) give Toulouse an expected score of 51%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Toulouse winDrawStrasbourg win

Expected goals (model): Toulouse 2.00 · Strasbourg 1.52 · most likely score 2–1 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.70 / away 1.33 goals per game from 81 Ligue 1 games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Toulouse expected score 51%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

ToulouseStrasbourg
12thTable position13th
10 (9)Points (played)10 (9)
2-4-3W-D-L3-1-5
1.33Goals for / game*1.89
1.44Goals against / game*2.11
LDWDLForm, last 5 (all comps)LLLLW
1503Elo rating (pre-match)1556
0.91 / 0.96Attack / defence index1.18 / 1.29

Table: current Ligue 1 standings. *Ligue 1 games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Toulouse 2 wins · 1 draw · Strasbourg 2 wins

  • Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse
  • Toulouse 1–0 Strasbourg
  • Strasbourg 2–1 Toulouse
  • Toulouse 1–2 Strasbourg
  • Toulouse 0–0 Strasbourg