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AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: UEFA Champions League, Nov 4, 2026

UEFA Champions League
HomeAEK Athens5812OVR
Kick-off 11:45 AM CT
AwayReal Madrid8217OVR

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · OPAP Arena, Athens, Greece

Team comparison

Ratings

5812OVRHome

AEK Athens

ATT
5311
DEF
5812
FRM
5812
ELO
6313
  • 5311Attack7816
  • 5812Defence6814
  • 5812Form9920
  • 6313Elo strength9118
  • 5812Overall8217
ATTDEFFRMELO
AEK Athens Real Madrid
8217OVRAway

Real Madrid

ATT
7816
DEF
6814
FRM
9920
ELO
9118

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Confirmed lineups

Lineups expected ~1h before kickoff.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

AEK Athens (27th, 3 pts from 3) host Real Madrid (5th, 9 pts from 3) in the Champions League table as it stands. AEK Athens have scored 3 and conceded 8 in 3 Champions League games (1.0 and 2.7 per game). Real Madrid have scored 10 and conceded 5 in 3 Champions League games (3.3 and 1.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): AEK Athens WLLWL, Real Madrid WWWWW. In the last 2 meetings on record, AEK Athens won 0, Real Madrid won 0 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.6–2.5. Real Madrid are clear favorites: AEK Athens 24%, draw 19%, Real Madrid 57%. The single most likely score is 1–2, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (AEK Athens 1523, Real Madrid 1778) give AEK Athens an expected score of 25%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Champions League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.

Data outlook

AEK Athens winDrawReal Madrid win

Expected goals (model): AEK Athens 1.63 · Real Madrid 2.53 · most likely score 1–2 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.33 / away 1.59 goals per game from 63 Champions League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: AEK Athens expected score 25%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

AEK AthensReal Madrid
27thTable position5th
3 (3)Points (played)9 (3)
1-0-2W-D-L3-0-0
1.00Goals for / game*3.33
2.67Goals against / game*1.67
WLLWLForm, last 5 (all comps)WWWWW
1523Elo rating (pre-match)1778
0.76 / 1.18Attack / defence index1.35 / 0.93

Table: current Champions League standings. *Champions League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

AEK Athens 0 wins · 2 draws · Real Madrid 0 wins

  • Real Madrid 2–2 AEK Athens
  • AEK Athens 3–3 Real Madrid