Villarreal
- ATT
- 7215
- DEF
- 5812
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 6714
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal, Spain
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
Official video from CBS Sports Golazo on YouTube: “Villarreal vs. PSG: Extended Highlights | UCL League Phase MD 4 | CBS Sports Golazo”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Villarreal 0–6 PSG. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a PSG win (48%). Goals: 6 scored against 5.6 expected (Villarreal 0 vs 2.6, PSG 6 vs 3.0). Shots: Villarreal 14 (2 on target) vs PSG 22 (12); possession 29.4% – 70.6%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Villarreal (29th, 3 pts from 4) host PSG (1st, 12 pts from 4) in the Champions League table as it stands. Villarreal have scored 8 and conceded 8 in 3 Champions League games (2.7 and 2.7 per game). PSG have scored 14 and conceded 5 in 3 Champions League games (4.7 and 1.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Villarreal DLWWL, PSG WWWWW. The goals model expects about 2.6–3.0. PSG are slight favorites: Villarreal 35%, draw 17%, PSG 48%. The single most likely score is 2–3, but even that only has a 6% chance. Elo ratings (Villarreal 1559, PSG 1815) give Villarreal an expected score of 24%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Champions League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Expected goals (model): Villarreal 2.62 · PSG 3.02 · most likely score 2–3 (6%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.45 / away 1.55 goals per game from 56 Champions League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Villarreal expected score 24%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Villarreal | PSG | |
|---|---|---|
| 29th | Table position | 1st |
| 3 (4) | Points (played) | 12 (4) |
| 1-0-3 | W-D-L | 4-0-0 |
| 2.67 | Goals for / game* | 4.67 |
| 2.67 | Goals against / game* | 1.67 |
| DLWWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWWWW |
| 1559 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1815 |
| 1.17 / 1.17 | Attack / defence index | 1.67 / 0.92 |
| 29.4 | Possession % (this match) | 70.6 |
| 14 | Shots (this match) | 22 |
| 2 | Shots on target (this match) | 12 |
| 4 | Corners (this match) | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls (this match) | 4 |
Table: current Champions League standings. *Champions League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
No previous meetings in the data feed.