Shakhtar Donetsk
- ATT
- 5712
- DEF
- 7816
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 6513
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 11:45 AM CT · Stamford Bridge, London, England
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
Official video from CBS Sports Golazo on YouTube: âShakhtar Donetsk vs. Sporting CP: Extended Highlights | UCL League Phase MD 4 | CBS Sports Golazoâ. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 Ă log2(attack index), DEF = 65 â 30 Ă log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 Ă points from the last 5 games Ă· 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo â 1500) Ă· 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating Ă· 99 Ă 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Shakhtar 0â1 Sporting. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a Sporting win at only 29%, and its favorite was a Shakhtar win (48%). Goals: 1 scored against 3.0 expected (Shakhtar 0 vs 1.7, Sporting 1 vs 1.3). Shots: Shakhtar 14 (4 on target) vs Sporting 11 (3); possession 54.4% â 45.6%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Shakhtar (21st, 4 pts from 4) host Sporting (6th, 9 pts from 4) in the Champions League table as it stands. Shakhtar have scored 4 and conceded 3 in 3 Champions League games (1.3 and 1.0 per game). Sporting have scored 7 and conceded 4 in 3 Champions League games (2.3 and 1.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Shakhtar LDWWL, Sporting WWLLW. In the last 2 meetings on record, Shakhtar won 0, Sporting won 2 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.7â1.3. Shakhtar are slight favorites: Shakhtar 48%, draw 24%, Sporting 29%. The single most likely score is 1â1, but even that only has a 11% chance. Elo ratings (Shakhtar 1546, Sporting 1735) give Shakhtar an expected score of 32%, which disagrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Champions League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Expected goals (model): Shakhtar 1.70 · Sporting 1.27 · most likely score 1â1 (11%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.50 / away 1.59 goals per game from 54 Champions League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline Ă attack Ă opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Shakhtar expected score 32%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Shakhtar | Sporting | |
|---|---|---|
| 21st | Table position | 6th |
| 4 (4) | Points (played) | 9 (4) |
| 1-1-2 | W-D-L | 3-0-1 |
| 1.33 | Goals for / game* | 2.33 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game* | 1.33 |
| LDWWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWLLW |
| 1546 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1735 |
| 0.83 / 0.74 | Attack / defence index | 1.07 / 0.83 |
| 54.4 | Possession % (this match) | 45.6 |
| 14 | Shots (this match) | 11 |
| 4 | Shots on target (this match) | 3 |
| 7 | Corners (this match) | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls (this match) | 18 |
Table: current Champions League standings. *Champions League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Shakhtar 0 wins · 0 draws · Sporting 2 wins