Manchester United
- ATT
- 6112
- DEF
- 6513
- FRM
- 357
- ELO
- 6814
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 ¡ 2:00 PM CT ¡ Old Trafford, Manchester, England
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
Official video from CBS Sports Golazo on YouTube: âManchester United vs. Roma: Extended Highlights | UCL League Phase MD 4 | CBS Sports Golazoâ. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 Ă log2(attack index), DEF = 65 â 30 Ă log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 Ă points from the last 5 games á 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo â 1500) á 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating á 99 Ă 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Man Utd 3â2 AS Roma. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Man Utd win (44%). Goals: 5 scored against 3.9 expected (Man Utd 3 vs 2.1, AS Roma 2 vs 1.8). Shots: Man Utd 15 (6 on target) vs AS Roma 7 (4); possession 52.4% â 47.6%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Man Utd (17th, 6 pts from 4) host AS Roma (20th, 4 pts from 4) in the Champions League table as it stands. Man Utd have scored 5 and conceded 6 in 3 Champions League games (1.7 and 2.0 per game). AS Roma have scored 8 and conceded 5 in 3 Champions League games (2.7 and 1.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Man Utd LDLLL, AS Roma WWDWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Man Utd won 4, AS Roma won 1 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 2.1â1.8. Man Utd are slight favorites: Man Utd 44%, draw 21%, AS Roma 35%. The single most likely score is 2â1, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (Man Utd 1575, AS Roma 1708) give Man Utd an expected score of 40%, which disagrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Champions League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Expected goals (model): Man Utd 2.06 ¡ AS Roma 1.81 ¡ most likely score 2â1 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.45 / away 1.55 goals per game from 56 Champions League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline Ă attack Ă opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Man Utd expected score 40%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Man Utd | AS Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| 17th | Table position | 20th |
| 6 (4) | Points (played) | 4 (4) |
| 2-0-2 | W-D-L | 1-1-2 |
| 1.67 | Goals for / game* | 2.67 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game* | 1.67 |
| LDLLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWDWW |
| 1575 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1708 |
| 0.92 / 1.00 | Attack / defence index | 1.17 / 0.92 |
| 52.4 | Possession % (this match) | 47.6 |
| 15 | Shots (this match) | 7 |
| 6 | Shots on target (this match) | 4 |
| 3 | Corners (this match) | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls (this match) | 14 |
Table: current Champions League standings. *Champions League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Man Utd 4 wins ¡ 0 draws ¡ AS Roma 1 win