Barcelona
- ATT
- 8016
- DEF
- 6513
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 9519
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona, Spain
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
Official video from CBS Sports Golazo on YouTube: “Barcelona vs. Aston Villa: Extended Highlights | UCL League Phase MD 4 | CBS Sports Golazo”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Barcelona 3–0 Aston Villa. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Barcelona win (46%). Goals: 3 scored against 4.9 expected (Barcelona 3 vs 2.6, Aston Villa 0 vs 2.3). Shots: Barcelona 16 (8 on target) vs Aston Villa 9 (1); possession 64.8% – 35.2%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Barcelona (2nd, 9 pts from 4) host Aston Villa (3rd, 9 pts from 4) in the Champions League table as it stands. Barcelona have scored 11 and conceded 6 in 3 Champions League games (3.7 and 2.0 per game). Aston Villa have scored 12 and conceded 3 in 3 Champions League games (4.0 and 1.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Barcelona WWLLW, Aston Villa WWWLD. The goals model expects about 2.6–2.3. Barcelona are slight favorites: Barcelona 46%, draw 18%, Aston Villa 36%. The single most likely score is 2–2, but even that only has a 7% chance. Elo ratings (Barcelona 1811, Aston Villa 1686) give Barcelona an expected score of 74%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Champions League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Expected goals (model): Barcelona 2.60 · Aston Villa 2.33 · most likely score 2–2 (7%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.45 / away 1.55 goals per game from 56 Champions League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Barcelona expected score 74%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Barcelona | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Table position | 3rd |
| 9 (4) | Points (played) | 9 (4) |
| 3-0-1 | W-D-L | 3-0-1 |
| 3.67 | Goals for / game* | 4.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game* | 1.00 |
| WWLLW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWWLD |
| 1811 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1686 |
| 1.42 / 1.00 | Attack / defence index | 1.50 / 0.75 |
| 64.8 | Possession % (this match) | 35.2 |
| 16 | Shots (this match) | 9 |
| 8 | Shots on target (this match) | 1 |
| 4 | Corners (this match) | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls (this match) | 9 |
Table: current Champions League standings. *Champions League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
No previous meetings in the data feed.