Sassuolo
- ATT
- 6513
- DEF
- 5010
- FRM
- 357
- ELO
- 5712
Monday, November 2, 2026 ¡ 11:30 AM CT ¡ Mapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia, Italy
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
Official video from Serie A on YouTube: âSix-Goal Thriller at the Mapei! | SASSUOLO-FIORENTINA | HIGHLIGHTS | Serie A 2026/27â. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 Ă log2(attack index), DEF = 65 â 30 Ă log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 Ă points from the last 5 games á 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo â 1500) á 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating á 99 Ă 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Sassuolo 2â4 Fiorentina. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a Fiorentina win at only 32%, and its favorite was a Sassuolo win (48%). Goals: 6 scored against 4.0 expected (Sassuolo 2 vs 2.2, Fiorentina 4 vs 1.8). Shots: Sassuolo 7 (2 on target) vs Fiorentina 15 (6); possession 58.2% â 41.8%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Sassuolo (17th, 8 pts from 10) host Fiorentina (16th, 8 pts from 10) in the Serie A table as it stands. Sassuolo have scored 14 and conceded 22 in 9 Serie A games (1.6 and 2.4 per game). Fiorentina have scored 11 and conceded 21 in 9 Serie A games (1.2 and 2.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Sassuolo LDLLL, Fiorentina WLLLD. In the last 5 meetings on record, Sassuolo won 2, Fiorentina won 2 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 2.2â1.8. Sassuolo are slight favorites: Sassuolo 48%, draw 20%, Fiorentina 32%. The single most likely score is 2â1, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (Sassuolo 1470, Fiorentina 1481) give Sassuolo an expected score of 57%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Sassuolo 2.20 ¡ Fiorentina 1.79 ¡ most likely score 2â1 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.63 / away 1.52 goals per game from 98 Serie A games (this season). Expected goals = baseline Ă attack Ă opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Sassuolo expected score 57%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Sassuolo | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 17th | Table position | 16th |
| 8 (10) | Points (played) | 8 (10) |
| 2-2-6 | W-D-L | 2-2-6 |
| 1.56 | Goals for / game* | 1.22 |
| 2.44 | Goals against / game* | 2.33 |
| LDLLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLLLD |
| 1470 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1481 |
| 0.99 / 1.41 | Attack / defence index | 0.83 / 1.36 |
| 58.2 | Possession % (this match) | 41.8 |
| 7 | Shots (this match) | 15 |
| 2 | Shots on target (this match) | 6 |
| 5 | Corners (this match) | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls (this match) | 15 |
Table: current Serie A standings. *Serie A games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Sassuolo 2 wins ¡ 1 draw ¡ Fiorentina 2 wins