Newcastle United
- ATT
- 6814
- DEF
- 5712
- FRM
- 5812
- ELO
- 6714
Monday, November 2, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · St. James' Park, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
Official video from NBC Sports on YouTube: “Newcastle United v. Everton | PREMIER LEAGUE HIGHLIGHTS | 11/2/2026”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Newcastle 0–1 Everton. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated an Everton win at only 31%, and its favorite was a Newcastle win (43%). Goals: 1 scored against 2.6 expected (Newcastle 0 vs 1.4, Everton 1 vs 1.2). Shots: Newcastle 17 (2 on target) vs Everton 16 (5); possession 51.6% – 48.4%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Newcastle (13th, 11 pts from 9) host Everton (7th, 13 pts from 9) in the Premier League table as it stands. Newcastle have scored 12 and conceded 14 in 8 Premier League games (1.5 and 1.8 per game). Everton have scored 8 and conceded 9 in 8 Premier League games (1.0 and 1.1 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Newcastle WLLWL, Everton WDLLW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Newcastle won 1, Everton won 4 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.4–1.2. Newcastle are slight favorites: Newcastle 43%, draw 26%, Everton 31%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 12% chance. Elo ratings (Newcastle 1565, Everton 1525) give Newcastle an expected score of 64%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Newcastle 1.43 · Everton 1.17 · most likely score 1–1 (12%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.52 / away 1.20 goals per game from 89 Premier League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Newcastle expected score 64%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Newcastle | Everton | |
|---|---|---|
| 13th | Table position | 7th |
| 11 (9) | Points (played) | 13 (9) |
| 3-2-4 | W-D-L | 3-4-2 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game* | 1.00 |
| 1.75 | Goals against / game* | 1.12 |
| WLLWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WDLLW |
| 1565 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1525 |
| 1.08 / 1.21 | Attack / defence index | 0.81 / 0.87 |
| 51.6 | Possession % (this match) | 48.4 |
| 17 | Shots (this match) | 16 |
| 2 | Shots on target (this match) | 5 |
| 4 | Corners (this match) | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls (this match) | 9 |
Table: current Premier League standings. *Premier League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Newcastle 1 win · 0 draws · Everton 4 wins