Lorient
- ATT
- 4910
- DEF
- 8517
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 6313
Monday, November 2, 2026 · 1:45 PM CT · Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Lorient, France
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
Official video from beIN SPORTS USA on YouTube: âLorient vs Stade Brest | HIGHLIGHTS Ligue 1 | 11/02/2026 | beIN SPORTS USAâ. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 Ă log2(attack index), DEF = 65 â 30 Ă log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 Ă points from the last 5 games Ă· 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo â 1500) Ă· 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating Ă· 99 Ă 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Lorient 0â2 Brest. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a Brest win at only 29%, and its favorite was a Lorient win (42%). Goals: 2 scored against 2.1 expected (Lorient 0 vs 1.2, Brest 2 vs 0.9). Shots: Lorient 15 (0 on target) vs Brest 12 (4); possession 51.9% â 48.1%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Lorient (11th, 12 pts from 9) host Brest (10th, 12 pts from 9) in the Ligue 1 table as it stands. Lorient have scored 7 and conceded 6 in 8 Ligue 1 games (0.9 and 0.8 per game). Brest have scored 14 and conceded 12 in 8 Ligue 1 games (1.8 and 1.5 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Lorient LWWWD, Brest LDWDL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Lorient won 1, Brest won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.2â0.9. Lorient are slight favorites: Lorient 42%, draw 30%, Brest 29%. The single most likely score is 1â0, but even that only has a 14% chance. Elo ratings (Lorient 1524, Brest 1461) give Lorient an expected score of 67%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Lorient 1.18 · Brest 0.92 · most likely score 1â0 (14%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.73 / away 1.32 goals per game from 80 Ligue 1 games (this season). Expected goals = baseline Ă attack Ă opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Lorient expected score 67%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Lorient | Brest | |
|---|---|---|
| 11th | Table position | 10th |
| 12 (9) | Points (played) | 12 (9) |
| 3-3-3 | W-D-L | 3-3-3 |
| 0.88 | Goals for / game* | 1.75 |
| 0.75 | Goals against / game* | 1.50 |
| LWWWD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LDWDL |
| 1524 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1461 |
| 0.69 / 0.63 | Attack / defence index | 1.11 / 0.99 |
| 51.9 | Possession % (this match) | 48.1 |
| 15 | Shots (this match) | 12 |
| 0 | Shots on target (this match) | 4 |
| 8 | Corners (this match) | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls (this match) | 16 |
Table: current Ligue 1 standings. *Ligue 1 games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Lorient 1 win · 1 draw · Brest 3 wins