Gil Vicente
- ATT
- 5211
- DEF
- 8217
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 6112
Monday, November 2, 2026 · 2:15 PM CT · Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos, Portugal
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
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Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Gil Vicente 0–0 Vitória . That matched the model's most likely outcome, a draw (35%). Goals: 0 scored against 1.7 expected (Gil Vicente 0 vs 0.8, Vitória 0 vs 0.8). Shots: Gil Vicente 10 (1 on target) vs Vitória 11 (2); possession 48.3% – 51.7%.
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Gil Vicente (7th, 15 pts from 10) host Vitória (13th, 9 pts from 10) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Gil Vicente have scored 8 and conceded 7 in 9 Primeira Liga games (0.9 and 0.8 per game). Vitória have scored 10 and conceded 10 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.1 and 1.1 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Gil Vicente DWWWL, Vitória LDLWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Gil Vicente won 0, Vitória won 4 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 0.8–0.8. This looks evenly matched: Gil Vicente 33%, draw 35%, Vitória 33%. The single most likely score is 0–0, but even that only has a 19% chance. Elo ratings (Gil Vicente 1507, Vitória 1451) give Gil Vicente an expected score of 66%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Gil Vicente 0.83 · Vitória 0.83 · most likely score 0–0 (19%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.31 / away 1.42 goals per game from 88 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Gil Vicente expected score 66%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Gil Vicente | Vitória | |
|---|---|---|
| 7th | Table position | 13th |
| 15 (10) | Points (played) | 9 (10) |
| 4-3-3 | W-D-L | 2-3-5 |
| 0.89 | Goals for / game* | 1.11 |
| 0.78 | Goals against / game* | 1.11 |
| DWWWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LDLWW |
| 1507 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1451 |
| 0.74 / 0.68 | Attack / defence index | 0.86 / 0.86 |
| 48.3 | Possession % (this match) | 51.7 |
| 10 | Shots (this match) | 11 |
| 1 | Shots on target (this match) | 2 |
| 2 | Corners (this match) | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls (this match) | 21 |
Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Gil Vicente 0 wins · 1 draw · Vitória 4 wins