Telstar
- ATT
- 5110
- DEF
- 6112
- FRM
- 357
- ELO
- 5311
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT · 711 Stadion, Velsen-Zuid, Netherlands
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
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Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Telstar 4–2 FC Utrecht. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a Telstar win at only 35%, and its favorite was a FC Utrecht win (44%). Goals: 6 scored against 3.7 expected (Telstar 4 vs 1.8, FC Utrecht 2 vs 2.0). Shots: Telstar 16 (7 on target) vs FC Utrecht 15 (5); possession 34.7% – 65.3%.
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Telstar (16th, 9 pts from 11) host FC Utrecht (12th, 12 pts from 11) in the Eredivisie table as it stands. Telstar have scored 12 and conceded 21 in 10 Eredivisie games (1.2 and 2.1 per game). FC Utrecht have scored 17 and conceded 27 in 10 Eredivisie games (1.7 and 2.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Telstar LDLLL, FC Utrecht LWWDW. In the last 2 meetings on record, Telstar won 0, FC Utrecht won 1 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.8–2.0. FC Utrecht are slight favorites: Telstar 35%, draw 21%, FC Utrecht 44%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (Telstar 1438, FC Utrecht 1519) give Telstar an expected score of 47%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Telstar 1.76 · FC Utrecht 1.97 · most likely score 1–1 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.80 / away 1.93 goals per game from 96 Eredivisie games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Telstar expected score 47%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Telstar | FC Utrecht | |
|---|---|---|
| 16th | Table position | 12th |
| 9 (11) | Points (played) | 12 (11) |
| 2-3-6 | W-D-L | 3-3-5 |
| 1.20 | Goals for / game* | 1.70 |
| 2.10 | Goals against / game* | 2.70 |
| LDLLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LWWDW |
| 1438 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1519 |
| 0.73 / 1.10 | Attack / defence index | 0.93 / 1.34 |
| 34.7 | Possession % (this match) | 65.3 |
| 16 | Shots (this match) | 15 |
| 7 | Shots on target (this match) | 5 |
| 3 | Corners (this match) | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls (this match) | 20 |
Table: current Eredivisie standings. *Eredivisie games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Telstar 0 wins · 1 draw · FC Utrecht 1 win