Maritimo
- ATT
- 5511
- DEF
- 5010
- FRM
- 4810
- ELO
- 5611
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Estádio do Marítimo, Funchal, Portugal
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
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Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Maritimo 0–2 Santa Clara. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Santa Clara win (72%). Goals: 2 scored against 2.8 expected (Maritimo 0 vs 0.6, Santa Clara 2 vs 2.1). Shots: Maritimo 17 (6 on target) vs Santa Clara 11 (5); possession 52.4% – 47.6%.
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Maritimo (14th, 8 pts from 10) host Santa Clara (4th, 21 pts from 10) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Maritimo have scored 9 and conceded 19 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.0 and 2.1 per game). Santa Clara have scored 13 and conceded 6 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.4 and 0.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Maritimo LDLWL, Santa Clara WDWLL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Maritimo won 2, Santa Clara won 2 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 0.6–2.1. Santa Clara are clear favorites: Maritimo 10%, draw 18%, Santa Clara 72%. The single most likely score is 0–2, but even that only has a 14% chance. Elo ratings (Maritimo 1460, Santa Clara 1520) give Maritimo an expected score of 50%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Maritimo 0.64 · Santa Clara 2.11 · most likely score 0–2 (14%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.29 / away 1.44 goals per game from 85 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Maritimo expected score 50%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Maritimo | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| 14th | Table position | 4th |
| 8 (10) | Points (played) | 21 (10) |
| 2-2-6 | W-D-L | 6-3-1 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game* | 1.44 |
| 2.11 | Goals against / game* | 0.67 |
| LDLWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WDWLL |
| 1460 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1520 |
| 0.80 / 1.41 | Attack / defence index | 1.04 / 0.62 |
| 52.4 | Possession % (this match) | 47.6 |
| 17 | Shots (this match) | 11 |
| 6 | Shots on target (this match) | 5 |
| 5 | Corners (this match) | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls (this match) | 18 |
Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Maritimo 2 wins · 1 draw · Santa Clara 2 wins