Kasimpasa
- ATT
- 6413
- DEF
- 7716
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 6012
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 10:00 AM CT · Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, Istanbul, Türkiye
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed.
Official video from beIN SPORTS Türkiye on YouTube: “Kasımpaşa - Beşiktaş - Highlights | Trendyol Süper Lig - 2026/27”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Kasimpasa 2–2 Besiktas. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a draw at only 27%, and its favorite was a Kasimpasa win (40%). Goals: 4 scored against 2.6 expected (Kasimpasa 2 vs 1.3, Besiktas 2 vs 1.2). Shots: Kasimpasa 16 (6 on target) vs Besiktas 8 (4); possession 41.5% – 58.5%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Kasimpasa (5th, 17 pts from 10) host Besiktas (4th, 19 pts from 10) in the Süper Lig table as it stands. Kasimpasa have scored 13 and conceded 9 in 9 Süper Lig games (1.4 and 1.0 per game). Besiktas have scored 18 and conceded 10 in 9 Süper Lig games (2.0 and 1.1 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Kasimpasa DWLWW, Besiktas WWLDW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Kasimpasa won 2, Besiktas won 1 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.3–1.2. This looks evenly matched: Kasimpasa 40%, draw 27%, Besiktas 34%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Kasimpasa 1502, Besiktas 1640) give Kasimpasa an expected score of 39%, which disagrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Kasimpasa 1.35 · Besiktas 1.21 · most likely score 1–1 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.69 / away 1.27 goals per game from 88 Süper Lig games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Kasimpasa expected score 39%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
ROTASYON ZAMANI! | Konya - GS, FB - Göztepe, Paşa - BJK Maç Önü
Our summary, not a quote: Pre-match look at Kasimpasa vs Besiktas.
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Embedded from the creators' official channels. Opinions are the creators' own, not The Coefficient's.
| Kasimpasa | Besiktas | |
|---|---|---|
| 5th | Table position | 4th |
| 17 (10) | Points (played) | 19 (10) |
| 4-5-1 | W-D-L | 6-1-3 |
| 1.44 | Goals for / game* | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game* | 1.11 |
| DWLWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWLDW |
| 1502 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1640 |
| 0.98 / 0.76 | Attack / defence index | 1.26 / 0.81 |
| 41.5 | Possession % (this match) | 58.5 |
| 16 | Shots (this match) | 8 |
| 6 | Shots on target (this match) | 4 |
| 5 | Corners (this match) | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls (this match) | 15 |
Table: current Süper Lig standings. *Süper Lig games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Kasimpasa 2 wins · 2 draws · Besiktas 1 win