Juventus
- ATT
- 5712
- DEF
- 7615
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 7315
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 1:45 PM CT · Allianz Stadium, Torino, Italy
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
Official video from Serie A on YouTube: “Alajbegovic Strikes Stunning First Goal! | JUVENTUS-NAPOLI | HIGHLIGHTS | Serie A 2026/27”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Juventus 2–0 Napoli. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a Juventus win at only 31%, and its favorite was a Napoli win (42%). Goals: 2 scored against 2.5 expected (Juventus 2 vs 1.1, Napoli 0 vs 1.4). Shots: Juventus 18 (4 on target) vs Napoli 8 (1); possession 48.7% – 51.3%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Juventus (7th, 17 pts from 10) host Napoli (8th, 14 pts from 10) in the Serie A table as it stands. Juventus have scored 11 and conceded 10 in 9 Serie A games (1.2 and 1.1 per game). Napoli have scored 17 and conceded 11 in 9 Serie A games (1.9 and 1.2 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Juventus WLDWL, Napoli LLWDW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Juventus won 1, Napoli won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.1–1.4. Napoli are slight favorites: Juventus 31%, draw 27%, Napoli 42%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Juventus 1618, Napoli 1610) give Juventus an expected score of 60%, which disagrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Juventus 1.12 · Napoli 1.37 · most likely score 1–1 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.63 / away 1.54 goals per game from 97 Serie A games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Juventus expected score 60%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Juventus | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| 7th | Table position | 8th |
| 17 (10) | Points (played) | 14 (10) |
| 5-2-3 | W-D-L | 4-2-4 |
| 1.22 | Goals for / game* | 1.89 |
| 1.11 | Goals against / game* | 1.22 |
| WLDWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LLWDW |
| 1618 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1610 |
| 0.83 / 0.78 | Attack / defence index | 1.15 / 0.83 |
| 48.7 | Possession % (this match) | 51.3 |
| 18 | Shots (this match) | 8 |
| 4 | Shots on target (this match) | 1 |
| 13 | Corners (this match) | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls (this match) | 12 |
Table: current Serie A standings. *Serie A games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Juventus 1 win · 1 draw · Napoli 3 wins