Istanbul Basaksehir
- ATT
- 6213
- DEF
- 6313
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 6814
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 7:00 AM CT · Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Istanbul, Türkiye
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed.
Official video from beIN SPORTS Türkiye on YouTube: “Başakşehir vs. Samsunspor - Highlights | Trendyol Süper Lig - 2026/27”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Istanbul BB 5–2 Samsunspor. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Istanbul BB win (66%). Goals: 7 scored against 3.2 expected (Istanbul BB 5 vs 2.2, Samsunspor 2 vs 0.9). Shots: Istanbul BB 24 (10 on target) vs Samsunspor 9 (4); possession 59.5% – 40.5%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Istanbul BB (10th, 14 pts from 10) host Samsunspor (17th, 4 pts from 10) in the Süper Lig table as it stands. Istanbul BB have scored 12 and conceded 14 in 9 Süper Lig games (1.3 and 1.6 per game). Samsunspor have scored 8 and conceded 21 in 9 Süper Lig games (0.9 and 2.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Istanbul BB LWDWL, Samsunspor LLLLL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Istanbul BB won 4, Samsunspor won 1 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 2.2–0.9. Istanbul BB are clear favorites: Istanbul BB 66%, draw 19%, Samsunspor 15%. The single most likely score is 2–0, but even that only has a 10% chance. Elo ratings (Istanbul BB 1569, Samsunspor 1470) give Istanbul BB an expected score of 71%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Istanbul BB 2.22 · Samsunspor 0.94 · most likely score 2–0 (10%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.65 / away 1.28 goals per game from 86 Süper Lig games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Istanbul BB expected score 71%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Istanbul BB | Samsunspor | |
|---|---|---|
| 10th | Table position | 17th |
| 14 (10) | Points (played) | 4 (10) |
| 4-2-4 | W-D-L | 1-1-8 |
| 1.33 | Goals for / game* | 0.89 |
| 1.56 | Goals against / game* | 2.33 |
| LWDWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LLLLL |
| 1569 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1470 |
| 0.93 / 1.05 | Attack / defence index | 0.71 / 1.44 |
| 59.5 | Possession % (this match) | 40.5 |
| 24 | Shots (this match) | 9 |
| 10 | Shots on target (this match) | 4 |
| 8 | Corners (this match) | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls (this match) | 14 |
Table: current Süper Lig standings. *Süper Lig games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Istanbul BB 4 wins · 0 draws · Samsunspor 1 win