FC Groningen
- ATT
- 7315
- DEF
- 6213
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 6213
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 9:45 AM CT · Euroborg, Groningen, Netherlands
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
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Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: FC Groningen 2–3 Sparta. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a Sparta win at only 30%, and its favorite was a FC Groningen win (52%). Goals: 5 scored against 4.6 expected (FC Groningen 2 vs 2.6, Sparta 3 vs 2.0). Shots: FC Groningen 20 (10 on target) vs Sparta 8 (4); possession 58.9% – 41.1%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
FC Groningen (8th, 15 pts from 11) host Sparta (11th, 12 pts from 11) in the Eredivisie table as it stands. FC Groningen have scored 24 and conceded 21 in 10 Eredivisie games (2.4 and 2.1 per game). Sparta have scored 17 and conceded 24 in 10 Eredivisie games (1.7 and 2.4 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): FC Groningen WWLDL, Sparta LDWLL. In the last 5 meetings on record, FC Groningen won 1, Sparta won 4 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 2.6–2.0. FC Groningen are clear favorites: FC Groningen 52%, draw 19%, Sparta 30%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 7% chance. Elo ratings (FC Groningen 1522, Sparta 1428) give FC Groningen an expected score of 71%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): FC Groningen 2.60 · Sparta 1.98 · most likely score 2–1 (7%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.81 / away 2.00 goals per game from 98 Eredivisie games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: FC Groningen expected score 71%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| FC Groningen | Sparta | |
|---|---|---|
| 8th | Table position | 11th |
| 15 (11) | Points (played) | 12 (11) |
| 4-3-4 | W-D-L | 3-3-5 |
| 2.40 | Goals for / game* | 1.70 |
| 2.10 | Goals against / game* | 2.40 |
| WWLDL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LDWLL |
| 1522 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1428 |
| 1.20 / 1.08 | Attack / defence index | 0.92 / 1.20 |
| 58.9 | Possession % (this match) | 41.1 |
| 20 | Shots (this match) | 8 |
| 10 | Shots on target (this match) | 4 |
| 2 | Corners (this match) | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls (this match) | 14 |
Table: current Eredivisie standings. *Eredivisie games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
FC Groningen 1 win · 0 draws · Sparta 4 wins