Excelsior
- ATT
- 6012
- DEF
- 6413
- FRM
- 4810
- ELO
- 5511
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT · Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam, Netherlands
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
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Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Excelsior 0–9 FC Twente. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a FC Twente win (59%). Goals: 9 scored against 3.0 expected (Excelsior 0 vs 1.0, FC Twente 9 vs 2.0). Shots: Excelsior 0 (0 on target) vs FC Twente 28 (15); possession 20.2% – 79.8%.
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Excelsior (15th, 11 pts from 11) host FC Twente (4th, 23 pts from 11) in the Eredivisie table as it stands. Excelsior have scored 16 and conceded 19 in 10 Eredivisie games (1.6 and 1.9 per game). FC Twente have scored 19 and conceded 10 in 10 Eredivisie games (1.9 and 1.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Excelsior DLLLW, FC Twente DWLWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Excelsior won 1, FC Twente won 2 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.0–2.0. FC Twente are clear favorites: Excelsior 19%, draw 21%, FC Twente 59%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 10% chance. Elo ratings (Excelsior 1457, FC Twente 1638) give Excelsior an expected score of 33%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Excelsior 1.03 · FC Twente 1.98 · most likely score 1–1 (10%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.80 / away 1.93 goals per game from 96 Eredivisie games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Excelsior expected score 33%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Excelsior | FC Twente | |
|---|---|---|
| 15th | Table position | 4th |
| 11 (11) | Points (played) | 23 (11) |
| 3-2-6 | W-D-L | 7-2-2 |
| 1.60 | Goals for / game* | 1.90 |
| 1.90 | Goals against / game* | 1.00 |
| DLLLW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DWLWW |
| 1457 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1638 |
| 0.89 / 1.01 | Attack / defence index | 1.01 / 0.64 |
| 20.2 | Possession % (this match) | 79.8 |
| 0 | Shots (this match) | 28 |
| 0 | Shots on target (this match) | 15 |
| 0 | Corners (this match) | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls (this match) | 6 |
Table: current Eredivisie standings. *Eredivisie games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Excelsior 1 win · 2 draws · FC Twente 2 wins