Braga
- ATT
- 5511
- DEF
- 6814
- FRM
- 449
- ELO
- 6714
Sunday, November 1, 2026 ¡ 2:30 PM CT ¡ Estådio Municipal de Braga, Braga, Portugal
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
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Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 Ă log2(attack index), DEF = 65 â 30 Ă log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 Ă points from the last 5 games á 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo â 1500) á 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating á 99 Ă 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Braga 3â0 FC Famalicao. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a Braga win at only 24%, and its favorite was a FC Famalicao win (49%). Goals: 3 scored against 2.4 expected (Braga 3 vs 1.0, FC Famalicao 0 vs 1.5). Shots: Braga 15 (4 on target) vs FC Famalicao 4 (1); possession 58.7% â 41.3%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Braga (8th, 14 pts from 10) host FC Famalicao (11th, 10 pts from 10) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Braga have scored 9 and conceded 11 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.0 and 1.2 per game). FC Famalicao have scored 14 and conceded 11 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.6 and 1.2 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Braga LLLWL, FC Famalicao DWLLW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Braga won 2, FC Famalicao won 0 and 3 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.0â1.5. FC Famalicao are clear favorites: Braga 24%, draw 26%, FC Famalicao 49%. The single most likely score is 0â1, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Braga 1566, FC Famalicao 1553) give Braga an expected score of 60%, which disagrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Braga 0.95 ¡ FC Famalicao 1.47 ¡ most likely score 0â1 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.29 / away 1.44 goals per game from 87 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline Ă attack Ă opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Braga expected score 60%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Braga | FC Famalicao | |
|---|---|---|
| 8th | Table position | 11th |
| 14 (10) | Points (played) | 10 (10) |
| 4-2-4 | W-D-L | 2-4-4 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game* | 1.56 |
| 1.22 | Goals against / game* | 1.22 |
| LLLWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DWLLW |
| 1566 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1553 |
| 0.80 / 0.92 | Attack / defence index | 1.11 / 0.92 |
| 58.7 | Possession % (this match) | 41.3 |
| 15 | Shots (this match) | 4 |
| 4 | Shots on target (this match) | 1 |
| 7 | Corners (this match) | 1 |
| 24 | Fouls (this match) | 9 |
Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Braga 2 wins ¡ 3 draws ¡ FC Famalicao 0 wins