Athletic Club
- ATT
- 6112
- DEF
- 7816
- FRM
- 6714
- ELO
- 5912
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · San Mamés, Bilbao, Spain
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
Official video from ESPN FC on YouTube: “Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad | LALIGA Highlights | ESPN FC”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Athletic 2–1 Real Sociedad. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Athletic win (52%). Goals: 3 scored against 3.0 expected (Athletic 2 vs 1.8, Real Sociedad 1 vs 1.2). Shots: Athletic 13 (3 on target) vs Real Sociedad 14 (5); possession 38% – 62%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Athletic (7th, 15 pts from 10) host Real Sociedad (5th, 19 pts from 11) in the La Liga table as it stands. Athletic have scored 12 and conceded 9 in 9 La Liga games (1.3 and 1.0 per game). Real Sociedad have scored 19 and conceded 18 in 10 La Liga games (1.9 and 1.8 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Athletic DDLWW, Real Sociedad WDWWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Athletic won 0, Real Sociedad won 3 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.8–1.2. Athletic are clear favorites: Athletic 52%, draw 23%, Real Sociedad 25%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 11% chance. Elo ratings (Athletic 1489, Real Sociedad 1541) give Athletic an expected score of 51%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Athletic 1.79 · Real Sociedad 1.18 · most likely score 1–1 (11%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.70 / away 1.31 goals per game from 107 La Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Athletic expected score 51%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Athletic | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| 7th | Table position | 5th |
| 15 (10) | Points (played) | 19 (11) |
| 4-3-3 | W-D-L | 6-1-4 |
| 1.33 | Goals for / game* | 1.90 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game* | 1.80 |
| DDLWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WDWWW |
| 1489 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1541 |
| 0.91 / 0.75 | Attack / defence index | 1.20 / 1.15 |
| 38 | Possession % (this match) | 62 |
| 13 | Shots (this match) | 14 |
| 3 | Shots on target (this match) | 5 |
| 5 | Corners (this match) | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls (this match) | 13 |
Table: current La Liga standings. *La Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Athletic 0 wins · 2 draws · Real Sociedad 3 wins