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Arouca vs C.D. Nacional: Primeira Liga, Nov 1, 2026

Primeira Liga
HomeArouca7215OVR
1–0FT
AwayC.D. Nacional5211OVR
  • âšœ 64' Tiago Esgaio

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 9:30 AM CT · Estådio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca, Portugal

Highlights

2D match highlights

Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).

▶ Find official highlights on YouTube

Key moments

  1. Half-time: Arouca 0–0 Nacional.
  2. Substitution for Arouca: Pablo GozĂĄlbez comes on for Taichi Fukui.
  3. GOAL! Tiago Esgaio scores for Arouca. Arouca 1–0 Nacional. Assist: NĂ€is Djouahra.
  4. Substitution for Nacional: Matchoi DjolĂł comes on for Stavros Gavriel.
  5. Substitution for Nacional: Danel Dongmo comes on for Chiheb Labidi.
  6. Substitution for Nacional: Pablo Ruan comes on for Njoya Kader.
  7. Substitution for Arouca: Dylan NandĂ­n comes on for Ivan MartĂ­nez.
  8. Yellow card for Matchoi DjolĂł (Nacional).
  9. Substitution for Arouca: Lee Hyun-Ju comes on for Mateo Flores.
  10. Substitution for Arouca: Brian Mansilla comes on for Alfonso Trezza.
  11. Yellow card for Orest Lebedenko (Arouca).
  12. Yellow card for Danel Dongmo (Nacional).
  13. Substitution for Nacional: Daniel JĂșnior comes on for Miguel Baeza.
  14. Substitution for Nacional: Allen Obando comes on for Song Min-Kyu.
  15. Yellow card for Pablo GozĂĄlbez (Arouca).
  16. Full-time: Arouca 1–0 Nacional.
Team comparison

Ratings

7215OVRHome

Arouca

ATT
6413
DEF
8217
FRM
7615
ELO
6313
  • 6413Attack5812
  • 8217Defence5211
  • 7615Form449
  • 6313Elo strength4910
  • 7215Overall5211
ATTDEFFRMELO
Arouca Nacional
5211OVRAway

C.D. Nacional

ATT
5812
DEF
5211
FRM
449
ELO
4910

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games Ă· 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) Ă· 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating Ă· 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Post-match note

Final score: Arouca 1–0 Nacional. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Arouca win (58%). Goals: 1 scored against 2.5 expected (Arouca 1 vs 1.7, Nacional 0 vs 0.8). Shots: Arouca 12 (5 on target) vs Nacional 5 (1); possession 61.6% – 38.4%.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Arouca (5th, 20 pts from 10) host Nacional (16th, 7 pts from 10) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Arouca have scored 12 and conceded 7 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.3 and 0.8 per game). Nacional have scored 10 and conceded 18 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.1 and 2.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Arouca LDWWW, Nacional LLLLW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Arouca won 4, Nacional won 0 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.7–0.8. Arouca are clear favorites: Arouca 58%, draw 24%, Nacional 18%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Arouca 1527, Nacional 1401) give Arouca an expected score of 74%, which agrees with the goals model.

Pre-match outlook

Arouca winDrawNacional win

Expected goals (model): Arouca 1.70 · Nacional 0.84 · most likely score 1–0 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.30 / away 1.45 goals per game from 84 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Arouca expected score 74%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

AroucaNacional
5thTable position16th
20 (10)Points (played)7 (10)
6-2-2W-D-L2-1-7
1.33Goals for / game*1.11
0.78Goals against / game*2.00
LDWWWForm, last 5 (all comps)LLLLW
1527Elo rating (pre-match)1401
0.98 / 0.67Attack / defence index0.86 / 1.34
61.6Possession % (this match)38.4
12Shots (this match)5
5Shots on target (this match)1
8Corners (this match)2
6Fouls (this match)10

Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Arouca 4 wins · 1 draw · Nacional 0 wins

  • Arouca 3–0 C.D. Nacional
  • C.D. Nacional 1–2 Arouca
  • C.D. Nacional 1–2 Arouca
  • Arouca 1–0 C.D. Nacional
  • C.D. Nacional 1–1 Arouca